In the wake of the 2016 Presidential election, I’m struggling to come to terms with the results. Part of that struggle has been to face up clearly to what is likely to come down the road. Here, I’m advancing seven predictions for the future, along with mitigating factors, counter-propositions and related implications. I hope I’m proven wrong, folks. (But I won’t be.)
PREDICTION ONE: Roe v Wade will be overturned by the Trumpist SCJ.
But hold on: In many red states, access to abortion is already limited. If Roe falls, then state law controls; abortion will remain safe and available in blue state strongholds.
Bottom line: Women and families making low incomes in red states will be disproportionately impacted.
PREDICTION TWO: Federal recognition of gay marriage will be overturned by the Trumpist SCJ.
But hold on: Gay marriage will remain legal and equal in blue strongholds. Red states will limit or reject gay marriage outright.
I’m asking: Millenials overwhelmingly reject anti-gay rhetoric. Will they vote in 2018 and 2020?
PREDICTION THREE: Trumpism won’t bring back jobs lost to globalization and automation.
But hold on: Eventually, people will agree that the real winners of this election were billionaires and corporations, and we’ll have a genuine appetite for reforms in the way we tax and charter our would-be corporate masters.
Yeah, hold on that holding on: The need for decent-paying middle-class jobs is urgent. Taxes don’t create jobs. And automation is encroaching even on the service sector.
Implication: We need a solid safety net, for people just barely hanging on.
Reality check: The party taking power wants to privatize and shrink our existing safety net. The people have chosen to award that party control of all three branches of government.
As ever: The rich will do fine. The poor will be offered minimum wage jobs and told to be grateful they get that.
PREDICTION FOUR: Taxes will go down for the super wealthy, up for everyone else. Single parents will not be allowed to file as heads of household. Struggling people will be disproportionately penalized.
Yeah, but: Fixing tax code just requires passing legislation.
About that: Passing legislation requires winning the House, Presidency, and a supermajority in the Senate.
PREDICTION FIVE: US Healthcare costs, only just now slowing, will surge. Free of oversight, big pharma continues to soak US market.
Related: People with insurance from jobs will receive more lean benefit packages to offset costs and will pay more for meds.
Once again: People with disabilities, chronic ailments, low income families will be disproportionately affected.
PREDICTION SIX: Human impact on environment will continue unmodulated. Rising waters will threaten low-lying communities and in twenty years redraw the map of coastal America.
Yeah, but: Neither major party is serious about taking America green.
PREDICTION SEVEN: Capital will flee to the nation-state with the most stable form of governance. China and Russia will prosper and gain allies and financial muscle.
That’s the future I see. I’m not conceding anything; in two years, I’ll be voting for representatives who stand against Trumpism, and if a majority of Americans joined me, the far right agenda being advanced right now would only do minor harm to our country. If indifference and apathy hold sway, I’m afraid things will only continue to get worse. We have complicated problems to solve; they will require complex solutions.